Manuscript details
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Release date:2025-08-19 Number of views:9 Amount of downloads:6 DOI:10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25612
Abstract:Accurate short-term electrical load forecasting is of great significance for the design and
optimization scheduling of integrated energy systems(IES). However,the load data in real integrated energy
systems are low-quality and fluctuating,so the forecasting accuracy of existing prediction models is low. A shortterm electrical load forecasting method based on attention-based long short-term memory(AT-LSTM) and
Stacking learning was proposed. Under the framework of Stacking ensemble learning,AT-LSTM,random forest
and decision tree were ensembled to forecast short-term electrical load which can make up for the low prediction
accuracy of a single model. Based on the exploratory analysis results of data,the data feature engineering model
was constructed to input features,and this prediction method was used for short-term electricity load prediction.
The experimental results of the integrated energy system in Beijing show that compared to other algorithms,the
proposed method has a maximum prediction error reduction of 24.8%.
Key words:short-term electrical load forecasting;attention-based long short-term memory(AT-LSTM);
Stacking ensemble learning;integrated energy system(IES);feature engineering
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