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Short-term Electrical Load Forecasting Method Based on AT-LSTM and Stacking Ensemble Learning

Release date:2025-08-19  Number of views:9   Amount of downloads:6   DOI:10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25612

      Abstract:Accurate short-term electrical load forecasting is of great significance for the design and

optimization scheduling of integrated energy systems(IES). However,the load data in real integrated energy

systems are low-quality and fluctuating,so the forecasting accuracy of existing prediction models is low. A shortterm electrical load forecasting method based on attention-based long short-term memory(AT-LSTM) and

Stacking learning was proposed. Under the framework of Stacking ensemble learning,AT-LSTM,random forest

and decision tree were ensembled to forecast short-term electrical load which can make up for the low prediction

accuracy of a single model. Based on the exploratory analysis results of data,the data feature engineering model

was constructed to input features,and this prediction method was used for short-term electricity load prediction.

The experimental results of the integrated energy system in Beijing show that compared to other algorithms,the

proposed method has a maximum prediction error reduction of 24.8%.


      Key words:short-term electrical load forecasting;attention-based long short-term memory(AT-LSTM);

Stacking ensemble learning;integrated energy system(IES);feature engineering




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