Abstract: In order to improve the actual utility of power electricity package decision and avoid the default risk

caused by blind choice，the response stability of power users according to their purchase contract was studied ，a

peak-valley power electricity package decision-making method considering response stability was proposed. The

characteristic of peak-valley package is that the price of electricity is decreased with the decrease of the proportion of electricity during peak and valley periods. Power users who choose this type of package tend to use power at low

prices to get better revenue，but at the same time they will face higher risk of default. The index of response stability was put forward to quantify the probability that the users use electricity according to the provisions of the package. A comprehensive utility index was designed considering the expected default risk. Taking this as the optimization objective，a peak-valley power package decision model considering response stability was established. Finally，an example was constructed based on the actual data of a user to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.Compared with the traditional method，the proposed method can avoid the default risk of users blindly choosing high return packages. The results show that in the decision-making process of peak-valley type electricity package，users must fully consider their own actual electricity consumption and rationally choose the electricity package to reduce the risk of default.

      Key words: peak-valley power electricity package；response stability；comprehensive utility；default risk；

power user